Hit by a “perfect storm” that combined a decade (2000-2009) in which the S&P 500 lost about 1% a year with a rising tide of pension obligations, public workers’ pension funds across the country increasingly began turning to riskier alternative investments (such as hedge funds) in an effort to boost returns and close the gaps…
It has been well-documented that profitability is positively correlated with stock returns—firms with higher profits earn higher returns. The question that we will ask today about the profitability premium relates to its source: Is it based on risk? Or, is it an anomaly that results from persistent pricing errors? F.Y. Eric Lam, Shujing Wang and…
If investors were asked, “Who do you think is the greatest investor of our generation?” I’d bet an overwhelming majority would answer, “Warren Buffett.” If they were then asked, “Do you think you should follow his advice?” you might think that they would say, “Yes!” The sad truth is that while Buffett is widely admired,…
Retirement creates many challenges. Unfortunately, while about 10,000 Americans retire daily, the sad truth is that most people seem to spend less time planning for retirement than they do for a vacation. Anxiety regarding our futures is a common ailment, especially among the millions of Americans rapidly approaching the end of their working years. And…
It’s been well-documented that, in general, investors are risk-averse. This aversion to losses leads many investors to seek “tail protection” strategies. And the most direct way to obtain downside protection is to buy put options. However, purchasing volatility insurance is expensive, because, historically, realized volatility has been well below the level of volatility implied in…
Among the arguments made for investing in hedge funds is that they reduce the tail risks of traditional portfolios. In other words, they are expected to at least avoid the impact of market crises. Unfortunately, the 1998 implosion of Long-Term Capital Management and the global financial meltdown in 2008 demonstrated that this hypothesis is incorrect….
Financial research has uncovered many anomalies (mispricings) that persist even well after they’ve been discovered, the findings are published and their existence becomes widely known. The most well-known anomalies that represent violations of the Fama-French three-factor model (market beta, size and value) are: Net Stock Issues: Net stock issuance and stock returns are negatively correlated….
Simon Lack’s first book, “The Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It’s Too Good to Be True,” chronicles the history of the hedge fund, highlighting many subtle and not-so-subtle ways that risks and returns are biased in favor of the fund manager. He shows that, while it is certainly true that…
A long-standing anomaly for efficient markets has been what’s called “post-revision return drift” (PRD). Research into stock returns has found that changes in sell-side analyst recommendations for buying and selling stocks predict future long-term returns in the same direction as the change. Upgrades are followed by positive returns, and downgrades are followed by negative returns….
It seems that in the upcoming presidential election, American voters will be faced with choosing between two candidates with the highest unfavorable ratings in history. It’s either that (at least if the parties’ national conventions go as expected), or a choice not to vote. The unfavorable ratings of both candidates are creating a great amount…
It’s logical to believe that corporate managers have a preference for issuing equity at times when they perceive that their company’s stock price is overvalued, or high relative to some benchmark (such as price-to-earnings ratio or book-to-market ratio). What’s more, the academic research on the subject supports this hypothesis—seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) tend to be…
Allocations by institutional investors to alternative investment classes have risen substantially during recent decades. By 2010, the 1,000 largest sponsors of public pension funds allocated on average more than 17% of their assets to alternatives, including 9% to venture capital and buyout funds and 6% to real estate. At the average university endowment, alternatives in…
Behavioral finance is the study of human behavior and how that behavior leads to investment errors, including the mispricing of assets. Among the many behavioral biases well-documented in the literature is “local” bias—individual investors tend to invest more in stocks that are close to home. There’s also evidence that local bias extends to the behavior…
Many investors and advisors who implement multifactor portfolios tend to focus on capturing the value premium over the size premium, often for the simple reason that, historically, the value premium has been larger. Others have even challenged the size premium’s very existence, citing a weak and varying historical record. In both situations, it may be…
Initial public offerings (IPOs) involve a great deal of uncertainty, which makes them a relatively risky investment. Thus, investors should receive higher expected returns as compensation for the greater amount of risk that’s associated with them. However, the evidence shows that unless you are well-connected enough to receive an allocation at the IPO price (and…