Even many advocates of active management will concede that the efficiency of the market for U.S. large-cap stocks is so great that attempts to add value (generate alpha) through individual stock selection and/or market timing are unlikely to produce positive results. However, they cling religiously to the notion that active management remains the winning strategy…
The academic study of price momentum has intensified considerably since 1993, the year Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman’s paper, “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency,” appeared in The Journal of Finance. The authors found that buying winning stocks and selling losers generated significant positive returns over three- to 12-month…
Unit investment trusts (UITs) are SEC-regulated investment vehicles in which a portfolio of securities is selected by a sponsor and then deposited into a trust. Assets held in UITs have grown steadily since the financial crisis, increasing from about $20 billion at the close of 2008 to about $87 billion by the end of 2013….
A June 2012 study authored by University of Rochester professor Robert Novy-Marx, “The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium,” not only provided investors with new insights into the cross section of stocks returns, but also led to the development of new factor models that incorporate a profitability factor. Novy-Marx’s Findings Before unpacking a…
Momentum has been found to be a persistent and pervasive factor in the returns not only of stocks, but of other asset classes (including bonds, commodities and currencies). Compared with the market, value and size risk factors, momentum in equities has earned both the highest premium and the highest Sharpe ratio. However, momentum has also…
I was recently asked to comment on an article that appears in the April 2015 issue of the American Association of Individual Investors Journal. The article is based on the paper “Mutual Fund’s R2 as Predictor of Performance,” which was published in the March 2013 issue of The Review of Financial Studies. As you may…
Last year, U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) were the best-performing equity asset class. In addition, U.S. stocks far outperformed international stocks. Unfortunately, historical evidence demonstrates that individual investors tend to be performance chasers. They watch the markets, then buy yesterday’s winners (after the great performance) and sell yesterday’s losers (after the loss has already…
Despite the fact that traditional financial theory has long held that dividend policy should be irrelevant to stock returns, one of the biggest trends to occur in recent years has been a rush to invest in dividend-paying stocks. The heightened interest in these assets has been fueled both by media hype and the current regime…
Since the development of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) about 50 years ago, academic researchers have documented several hundred “anomalies” that generate a significant positive alpha. There are now so many that professor John Cochrane referred to them as the “factor zoo.” There are certainly large incentives to find these anomalies, both for academics…
An overwhelming body of evidence clearly demonstrates that past performance isn’t prologue, which presents a problem for investors who believe active management is the winning strategy. Without the ability to rely on past performance as a predictor, there is really no way to identify ahead of time the few active managers that will go on…
Diversification is often referred to as the only “free lunch” in investing because, when done properly, it allows investors to improve risk-adjusted returns. This principle applies not just to diversification across U.S. stocks, but to investing globally. The choice to purchase securities internationally helps mitigate the economic and political risks of investing in only a…
A reader asked me to comment on a recent Forbes article titled “Active Versus Passive Management: Which Is Better?” The author, contributor Peter Andersen, asks this question while observing that, in 2014, the vast majority of active fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 Index. However, he also notes that there have been periods “where active…
rom 1926 through 2014, the default premium (the annual return on long-term, investment-grade corporate bonds minus the annual return on long-term Treasurys) has been just 0.22 percent. Such a small premium has led many observers, including me, to conclude that investors willing to accept higher levels of portfolio risk in exchange for higher expected returns…
Value is the phenomenon in which securities that sell at low prices relative to fundamental metrics (such as earnings, book value, cash flow, dividends and sales) on average outperform securities that sell at high relative prices. Specifically, the value premium is the annual average return realized by going long cheap assets and short expensive ones….
Earlier this week, we began discussing some of the more pervasive and enduring facts and fictions surrounding the value premium. But it’s important to understand that the value premium—a phenomenon in which securities that sell at low prices relative to fundamental metrics outperform on average securities that sell at high relative prices—is an empirical fact….